Voters keep Tories on short leash

Voters keep Tories on short leash

Oct 15, 2008 04:30 AM
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Carol Goar

Canada has the dubious distinction of being the first country to hold a national vote since the global economy broke loose from its moorings.

Electors made a sober choice: They stuck with what they knew


It was not an unequivocal vote confidence in Prime Minister Stephen Harper. For the third time in four years, Canadians elected a minority government.

It was a carefully reasoned decision. Voters picked the Conservatives as the safest alternative and kept them on a short leash by sending a sizeable opposition force to Parliament.

But there is no certainty in these times. For all their prudence, voters are likely to face a quite different future than the one Harper laid out on the campaign trail.

First of all, the Prime Minister's brave talk about protecting Canada from a recession will soon give way to a candid acknowledgement that all he – or any other national leader – can do is react nimbly to the upheavals as they come.

He'll get a few months' grace. According to Statistics Canada, the country is not yet technically in a recession. But barring a spectacular economic resurgence, Harper's second mandate will be characterized by business failures, job losses and a long plunge in home prices.

When they come, what he said on the hustings will be irrelevant. Canadians will want a Prime Minister who can make the best of adverse circumstances and use the power of the state to cushion Canadians from as much hardship as possible.

Next to go will be the fiction that Canada can remain deficit-free.

When revenues decrease – as they inevitably do when businesses falter and taxpayers lose their jobs; and costs rise – as they invariably do when employment insurance claims increase and welfare rolls swell – no government can balance its budget without slashing public expenditures brutally.

The Conservatives may be able to avoid a deficit this year, thanks to the residual strength of the economy. But next year and beyond, they'll be budgeting amid such uncertainty that a no-deficit guarantee would amount to a vow to sacrifice anything to avoid red ink. If Harper sticks to his doctrinaire stance as Canadians appeal for help, he can wave goodbye to his chances of re-election.

The Prime Minister's vision of Canada as an "energy superpower" already looks out of-date.

The world's appetite for oil has shrunk dramatically in the past three months. Since mid-July, the price of a barrel of crude has dropped by 46 per cent. At $79 (U.S.) a barrel, where it closed yesterday, oil-sands producers were barely recovering their costs. In these conditions, it makes little sense to go ahead with expansion plans.

Weak demand isn't the only threat. Next month's presidential election in the United States could propel Harper into the climate-change era much faster than he expects.

Democratic contender Barack Obama has made it clear that curbing greenhouse gas emissions is one of his top priorities. He has also served notice that America will not buy "dirty oil" (which includes the tar-like bitumen from the Athabaska oil sands) if he becomes president.

Relying on fossil fuels to power the Canadian economy through the recession is not going to work.

Finally, the composition of Canada's 40th Parliament could compel the Prime Minister to adjust his agenda.

All three opposition parties, who collectively hold more seats than the Conservatives, want Ottawa to tackle poverty, penalize polluters, invest in green technologies, build affordable housing and support the arts. None of those is a Tory priority.

Harper will have to accommodate some of their proposals to keep his minority government alive.

There is also a possibility that the Liberals, New Democrats and Bloc Québécois could join forces to defeat the government, then attempt to govern as a coalition. But they'd have to overcome tradition and partisanship.

Canadians who voted for Harper because he is shrewd and competent will probably be satisfied.

Those who picked him because they believed what he said are in for a few surprises.



Carol Goar's column appears Monday, Wednesday and Friday.

http://www.thestar.com/comment/columnists/article/517579